Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Management vs Resources

What is more important, Management or Resources? Actually both. But in today's game between Spain and Germany, you can check what is more important. If you're a entrepreneur, knowing this is important in order to use your money in most effective way. Answer coming from this may not relevant to every business context, but this will make a general idea. In my opinion Management is more important.

Germany is a young team. Lot of players are not very big names in professional club football. Only world class players are,

Miroslav KLOSE - Bayern Munchen striker rated 93,
Bastian SCHWEINSTEIGER - Bayern Munchen play maker rated 92,
Philipp LAHM - Bayern Munchen full back rated 93,
Per MERTESACKER - Werder Bremen center back rated 94.

But Spain on the other hand have the best players in world football including

Iker CASILLAS - Real Madrid goal keeper rated 96,
Carles PUYOL - Barcelona center back rated 96,
SERGIO RAMOS - Real Madrid fullback rated 94,
Andres INIESTA - Barcelona attacking midfielder rated 96,
Hernandez XAVI - Barcelona midfielder rated 97,
Cesc FABREGAS - Arsenal midfielder rated 95,
XABI ALONSO - Real Madrid defensive midfielder rated 94,
DAVID SILVA - Valencia left mid rated 92,
David VILLA - Barcelona striker rated 95,
Fernando TORRES - Liverpool center forward rated 95.

So clearly Spain have the better resources. But if they have such a quality squad why their performance not convincing? May be because those resources are not managed properly. This same players won European championship in 2oo8 beating Germany 1-0 in the final. But then Spain had a different manager and their playing was convincing through out the tournament just like Germans are now. But with the same squad Spain sucks now. Only change was in management.

In that case Germany are performing brilliantly with their young inexperienced players. Their tactics, attacking formation, defending formation, man marking, defensive positions are excellent. That means their play management is excellent.

That's why I'm mentioning this as a Management vs Resources game. Spain have the best resources in the world, but seems to be having a poor management. Germany don't have a world class squad, but their manager has displayed the best tactics.

So, which will win today? Management or Resources?

I am a management man. I think well managed limited resources is more productive than mismanaged big resources. But quality of those Spanish players are high enough to come till semi finals even with poor management. So you can't under estimate them.

I think even with those world class quality midfield Spanish poor attacking tactics will not break the super German defense. So best case scenario for Spain is 0-0 after 120 minutes. But still Germans have the better record in penalty shootouts. Best case scenario for Germany is to put another 4 in their opponents net while Klose becoming the highest goal scorer in the world cup history. Therefore Germany are clearly the top favorites here.

I also believe team who will win this semifinal will go and win the world cup against Netherlands in the final. Because Dutch defense is breakable for both of these teams. So this can be considered as the unofficial world cup final.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

Quater Finals - Day 2

Hay everybody, Commenting on the last post, As I predicted Germany came through England, but I expected a penalty shootout because I expected England to be better in their defense and referees didn't help England either with their decisions.

While everyone predicting Brazil to win their quarter final against Netherlands, I over and over mentioned both in this blog and in face-book this is a totally unpredictable and Netherlands proved my point yesterday.

Argentina VS Germany.

This is also a very competitive fixture. So lets breakdown this and analyze.

1)History

They have met 18 times. 8 Won by Argentina. 5 Won by Germany. 5 draw.

But as I have mentioned even before, Germany performs well in world cups. So in the world cups they've met 5 times, Germany won 2. Argentina won only 1.

So in world cup history Germany is the better team.

2) Form and Moral

Both teams are in good form. Germans defeat against Serbia makes a little edge to Argentina as they have never defeated in the tournament. But surely they are meeting a top quality team for the 1st time in this tournament, so their never beaten fact doesn't make a big sense. Germany on the other hand, played a really good counter attacking football against England (is a real deal even they are inform) and that must have surely up Germans moral, which is a big factor in this level of football.

Therefore considering statistical form and moral Germany is edging.

3) Squad Analysis

Argentina

Defense : 90.0
Mid Field: 92.3
Attack : 95.0

Germany

Defense : 91.7
Mid Field: 91.5
Attack : 90.25

Argentina Attack Germany

Argentinian attacking power is 3.3% powerful than German defense. Therefore Germans may not be able to stop these world class strikers from scoring unless their midfield helped the defenders.

Germany Attack Argentina

German attack is 0.25% powerful than Argentinian defense. But if Argentinian midfielders came to help their defense, it'll not be easy for Germans to break that. But Germans have young quick legs to do the attacking before advanced Argentinian midfielders set back.

Midfield

Argentinian midfield is 0.8% better than German. Remember I said German midfield has to help their defense too. So Schweinsteiger and Khedira can't advance much and help their attackers much. So Argentinians expected to be keep the possession more than Germans.

Tactics

Germany have only one option. Do what they did against England. Their set Schweinsteiger and Khedira back. Defend well. Steal the ball from Argentina. Use Podolski, Ozil, Muller and Klose in counter attack.

Argentina should play their passing game. They have to keep the possession. But must not loose the ball in advanced positions. Mascherano (Or who ever the defensive midfielder they play) has to be in deep in order to help their defenders in the case of German counter attacks. Otherwise Argentinian defenders are not quality enough to take those lethal counter attacks alone them selves.

Players to watch

Argentina

Carlos Tavez

Gonzalo Higuain

Lionel Messi

Germany

Miroslav Klose

Thomas Muller

Bastian Schweinsteiger


Paraguay vs Spain

Just adding a quick note since this is the minor fixture in the day,

Do not under estimate Paraguay. Why?

Paraguay finished 3rd in qualifiers in South American region defeating Argentina 1-0 in their qualifiers fixture.

Paraguay yet to be defeated in the tournament.

In their previous encounters against Spain, they have been able to draw twice and only loose once and If they play defensive and push the game towards penalty shootout, any thing can happen. Actually any thing can happen at any stage like Switzerland have already done against European champions.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Germany vs England in Knockout 16



Germany vs England. Interesting fixture. Totally Unpredictable. Lets do a head to head analysis based on past records.

They have met 27 times.

England won 12.
Germany Won 10.
Draw 5.

But Germany normally perform well in world cups. In world cups they have met only 4 times. England won 1
Germany won 1
Draw 2.

So based on past results it cannot be separated.

So lets go the current situation. Germany are in better form than England. But if you analyze the squads England are better.

Zone - England - Germany

Center Backs - 92 - 92
Full Backs - 92.5 - 91
Central Midfield - 93 - 90.5
Wing - 93 - 89.5
Forward - 93.5 - 92

England Attack vs German Defense

Center Forward: 93.5-92 = 1.5 England Ahead.
Attack from Flanks: 93-91=2 England Ahead.
Attack from Midfield: 93 - 90.5 = 2.5 England Ahead.

Overall England attacking is 6% better than German defense.

German Attack vs England Defense.

Center Forward: 92-92 = 0 Cancel out.
Attack From Flanks: 89.5 - 92.5 = -3 Germany behind.
Attack from Midfield: 90.5 - 93 = -2.5 Germany behind.

Overall German defense is 5.5% behind than English defense.

England have power to attack from all directions. Very powerful from left flank where Gerrard and Ashley Cole play.

Germany should play counter attacking football. They should give concentrate on defending alot and counter attack using Podolski's speed when possible. England have poor record taking penalties in shootouts and Germany have a very good record in that. So playing defensive and counter attacking football is the best plan for Germany.

So with a summery,

Form: Germany Ahead
Line Up: England Ahead
History: Tie
Penalties: Germany Ahead

Statistical Prediction
Match will be tie till 120 minutes. Germany will win in a penalty shoot.

Before closing this post I'm adding some statements made by players and also the players to watch.

"It would be a terrible mistake to underestimate them just because they had a few problems in their group. They may well raise their game for the knockout matches. We have no need to be in awe, and we certainly have no reason to fear them. We respect them of course, but we're not afraid," Lukas Podolski, Germany striker.

"I think we can go all the way this time. I've never felt it like this before in other tournaments. I thought it was an excellent performance against Slovenia and we can't wait to get to grips with Germany," Joe Cole, England midfielder.

Players to Watch

England

Wayne Rooney

Frank Lampard

Steven Gerrard

Germany

Miroslav Klose

Lukas Podolski

Bastian Schweinsteiger

Saturday, June 26, 2010

Before Knockout 16



Group stage is over. All 5 South American teams (100%), 6 European temas out of 13(46%), 2 North American teams out of 3(66%), 2 Asian teams out of 4(50%) and only 1 African team out of 6(16%) have been selected to knockout 16.

South American teams showed a great success in group stage than European teams. Even africa have produced many world class players, still as a team African teams are not in the level of European and South American teams. But you can keep South America and Europe head to head. In that case teams came from similar latitudes to South Africa have performed well. May be the reason is Climate. Even though South American players have the practice plating in Europe, European players do not have the practice to play in tropical countries. This also came up in Confederation cup 2009. Both Italy and Spain were unsuccessful in the competition. If this is the case those retaining 6 European teams also will not have a successful journey in knockouts.

Knockout fixtures are set like this.
So teams in left will never play with teams in right until the final. Teams in the same side may play each other on the way to final. Now remember South Korea went all the way to semi finals in 2002 world cup. So any thing is possible in knockout stage. Good defensive tactics and luck can take any smaller footballing nation to pass giants. But if we take the general scenario it'll go like this

Knockout 16

Uruguay v S.Korea -> Uruguay
USA v Ghana -> Ghana
Argentina v Mexico -> Argentina
Germany v England -> Germany/England (Totally Unpredictable)
Netherlands v Slovakia -> Netherlands
Brazil v Chile -> Brazil
Paraguay v Japan -> Paraguay
Spain v Portugal -> Spain

Quarter Finals

Uruguay v Ghana -> Uruguay
Argentina v Germany/England -> Germany/England
Netherlands v Brazil -> Brazil/Netherlands (Totally Unpredictable)
Paraguay vs Spain -> Spain

Semi Finals

Uruguay vs Brazil/Netherlands -> Brazil/Netherlands
Germany/England v Spain -> Spain

Final

Brazil/Netherlands v Spain
1) Brazil v Spain -> Brazil
2) Netherlands v Spain -> Spain

If everything goes in usual way Brazil or Spain will be the champions. But we all know it'll not be like that. There will be upsets. That's the beauty of football. That's why we watch it.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

Later of group stage

Most of group stage matches are over. Lot of big names in world football fallen apart in front of smaller nations (football wise) due to flow of techniques through out the world with those European coaches. Specially defensive tactics. Now it has been usual fact that if any nation played 100% defensively they most probably can avoid a defeat. This is an important fact for Spanish supporters which I'll explain later on.

At this moment 8 teams filling half of spots of knockout stage are already qualified for the same. France were the most disappointing team so far. Couldn't seal any victory. They kept Karim Benzema and Samir Nasri, two players that could convert half chances to goals, at home when they were coming to South Africa. I'm not telling they lost because of those 2 players. France was one team who had great chemistry between players. But we didn't see it this time.

Another disappointing team is Spain. If Chilie play fully defensively Spain will most probably join France on their way back. And Chilie are more than capable of doing it, specially Spain have only one goal scorer they can rely on, David Villa. Chilie has to mark him really well without giving any space to David Villa, or otherwise he'll do what he did to Honduras

No I didn't forget Fernando Torres, the best center forward in world football, but not at the moment. The Kid has lost his rhythm and confidence, so will not be a big threat to Chilie defensive minded players. Other than them they have world class midfielders like Iniesta, Xavi, Xabi Alonso...they'll keep their possession, supply the ball to strikers really well, but non of them are goal scorers except Cesc Fabregas.

Therefore there's a big chance for Chilie to make their match against Spain draw, which is enough for them to go to the next round. If Chilie went for attacking and lost to Spain, then there's a chance for them to being thrown out of the competition. So they'll play defensively and do what ever it takes to not to loose and if they don't loose, then Spain will have to go home.

So this world cup has created a great exciting atmosphere already in group stage. Wonder how it'll be in knockout rounds. With the heat of it I'll stop here with following note.

Team of the Moment: Brazil

Player of the Moment: Luis Fabiano.

Monday, June 14, 2010

Before the world cup

People from different parts of the world have different cultures, different habits, speak different languages. But they all love, watch and play one common game. Football. It has make people get together better than United Nations have done, even with the help of Angelina Jolie.

More than the number of nations in the United Nations started to play for qualify for the FIFA World Cup 2010 in South Africa from all continents of the world. Winning the FIFA World Cup is the ultimate dream for any football player, coach, any other member of a team staff and any football fan in the world. But only 32 teams could keep that dream alive for this world cup.

  • Algeria
  • Cameroon
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ghana
  • Nigeria
  • South Africa
  • Australia
  • Japan
  • Korea DPR
  • Korea Republic
  • Denmark
  • England
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Portugal
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Spain
  • Switzerland
  • New Zealand
  • Argentina
  • Brazil
  • Chile
  • Paraguay
  • Uruguay
In FIFA world cup, there's a very thin margin between being thrown out after the group stage and winning the world cup. In last world cup France almost thrown out after the group stage and they almost won the world cup. After the group stage, every game is a must win. 4 matches should be won in a row to win the world cup. It cannot be done, unless that team produce better performance under pressure consistently in every game. Without a genius manager, a quality squad and match winners in it, this cannot be done.

So which teams have this quality in their squads and which players are to watch in this world cup?

These teams are the real deals for this world cup.

Argentina

Their road to South Africa was a tough one. Maradona doesn't seems to be a good coach as much as he was as a player. But still you can't keep them out of top contenders list while world player of the year Lionel Messi , 2nd top scorer of Spanish la liga Gonzalo Higuain , Center Forward of the Champions League winnig team Inter Milan and 2nd highest scorer in Italian Serie A Diego Milito, Manchester City forward Carlos Tevez , and top scorer with 23 goals in Argentina colors Sergio Aguero

This outstanding attacking line up will be supplied by world one of best holding mid fielders Javier MASCHERANO .

Weak link is the Defence.













Gonzalo Higuain















Lionel Messi



Brazil

They are the masters of world football. They are the only team could qualified for all the world cups. They have won the world cup 5 times in 4 different continents, runners up twice, have won matches and scored goals more than any other nation in world cup history.

They come in to this world cup as a strong team as usual. Their squad consist of quality players and they are confidence about it even to leave a great legend like Ronaldinho out of the squad.

They have both the best right backs Maicon and Dani Alves . Forward players to watch are Center Forward Luis Fabiano, winger Robinho and attcking mid and the play maker Ricardo Kaka.


















Luis Fabiano





















Maicon



England

England is one of teams that had a great run in qualifications. When Steve McLaren couldn't make England qualified to EURO, Fabio Capello was appointed and man took through the same team to the world cup with a stunning 9 wins in their 10 games in qualifications.

England squad is one of most balanced sides in this world cup. Their defense consists of one of world best 2 left backs Ashley Cole of Chelsea, 2 of best center backs in the world John Terry of Chelsea and Rio Ferdinand of Manchester United. Central midfield will be filled with 2 of probably the best goal scoring midfielders in the world, Frank Lampard the penalty specialist and the most consistent goal scoring midfielder of the world and Steven Gerrard the 2nd highest hope of goal source in Liverpool. You can't imagine better couple of goal scoring central midfielders other than them. They will be supported by lighting fast wingers Aron Lennon and Shawn Right Phillips.

If there's weak link in their teams it's in strikers. But still they have Wayne Rooney, one striker who is in a tremendous form of goal scoring after Cristiano Ronaldo left Manchester United. But the question is there's no world class striker to replace him in a case. Only possible replacement is Jermain Defoe who is in good goal scoring form in club level. But can he deliver the same in international level?



















Frank Lampard














Ashley Cole



France

May be the most unpredictable team in world football. In last world cup they just confirmed their spot in last 16, in last match of the group stage by winning that must win match. And then they went all the way to finals and almost grab the trophy for the second time. On the way they beat Brazil and Portugal.

This time also they qualified for the last 32 teams thanks to the hand of Thierry Henry. No one knows how far will they go, but do not surprise if you heard France won it for the second time.

Surprising not to see Karim Benzema's name and Samir Nasri's name in the squad. Two good assets of world and french football, we're little unlucky to miss their skills in this world cup. But still they have Frank Ribery a left winger whose service is being considered by many top European clubs like Chelsea, Barcelona and Real Madrid. It doesn't matter how good is the supply chain if there's no one to finish it off. Nicolas Anelka is probably the coolest finisher in world football, do not get panic at all and wait fot pull the trigger at the perfect moment. Attacking will be further strengthen by Thierry Henry the man who took France to the South Africa by his hand. There are great players, world class players and then legends. Thierry Henry is a legend in world football.



















Nicolas Anelka
















Frank Ribery


Germany

After Brazil, Germany have been the best performers in the world cup history. They've been in 7 times in final and won 3 out of them. Only Bayern Munchen is the consistent top club in Germany. Lot of German players are not being mentioned in European club level football, but when they play in German colors they are brilliant. Best example is Lukas Podolski. PLays for FC Koln a club which is playing just for not to relegate from Bundes Liga. Podolski failed to perform consistently in last couple of years in club football. But when every time he plays for Germany he scores. Mirslav Klose is the main goal scoring source of German football team. An important player to watch in the midfield is Bastian Schweinsteiger . A very good long range shooter and advances to goal scoring positions well in international level. Width will be provided by Philipp Lahm who is another world class full back to keep your eye on, specially when Germany is attacking.














Mirslav Klose




















Bastian Shweinsteiger



Netherland

Netherland is another team who have a great attacking force. Robin Van Persie the only world class striker Arsenal had before Arshavin came, will lead the dutch attgoal keeper.ack with the side support from attacking wingers Arjen Robben the MVP of Bundes Liga in last season and Dirk Kuyt of liverpool who does a similar role in Liverpool assisting for Torres.

Champions League winning Inter Milan play maker Wesley Sneijder and Real Madrid attacking mid Rafael Van der vaart will also join this attacking force which make Netherland, a team that can be a nightmare to any goal keeper.

Dutch striking force is enough to win the world cup if they had a same quality defense, but dutch defenders are not among the world most recognized top defenders list. In the mean time there's a saying "Best way to defend is Attacking".



















Robin Van Persie




















Arjen Robben


Spain

European champions are the top favorites to winning the world cup along with Brazil due to their performance in Euro 2008 and until the end of world cup qualifications where they won all of them. They are ranked in 2 in FIFA ranking seconds only to Brazil who won the confederation cup last year.

Their squad probably the best squad flied to South Africa, consists of 4 players chosen to the FIFA team of the year as Goal keeper Iker Casillas, Midfielder Xavi Hernandez who also were the player of the tournament of Euro 2008, Andres Iniesta attacking winger and Fernando Torres who probably the best center forward in the world. Other positions also will be filled with world finest footballers like Cesc Fabregas the Arsenal play maker and probably the most valuable midfielder in the world, David Villa the highest goal scorer in Euro 2008 and one of best strikers in the world, Carlos Puyol a center back who can be put along side with Vidic, Ferdinand and Terry, and Xabi Alonso defensive mid fielder with long range striking ability.



















David Villa




















Andres Iniesta


So these teams are the top contenders who have quality squads and background to win the world cup. But in this level of football margin of error is too small which can be made even by the best player of the world and all the players in all of above teams are professional footballers who are more than good enough to grab that kind of chance which can lead to make a huge difference in the competition.

So enjoy the world cup, enjoy the football not goals, because in modern day football defensive tactics have been improved a lot and goals will not come easily. See you after the group stage with a group stage matches analysis.